The plan needs less than 5% of the serviceable market — a claim that survives both top-down and bottom-up sizing.

Sizing the opportunity

Top-down. South African PC shipments of roughly 1.9 million units a year, the majority notebooks, at a blended landed-plus-margin value, anchor an addressable South African hardware market of about R30 billion. Adding accessories and adjacent devices, and a further ~R8 billion of addressable SADC demand, gives a total addressable market (TAM) of ~R38 billion.

Serviceable (SAM). Excluding segments the business does not target (e.g. hyperscale direct-to-OEM enterprise deals and pure grey-market price buyers), the serviceable available market is ~R12.5 billion, commercial, education, public-sector and reseller demand reachable through the intended channels.

Obtainable (SOM). The bottom-up build, 14,000 units in Year 1 rising to ~44,000 by Year 5 across four segments, plus accessories and services and SADC re-export, reconciles to Year-5 revenue of ~R549m. That is ~4.4% of the SAM and ~1.4% of the TAM: a deliberately modest share that does not require displacing incumbents.

Demand drivers and dynamics

Table 7. Demand drivers — three strong tailwinds against one price headwind.

Bottom-up build — units by segment

The obtainable market is derived from the ground up: a unit forecast by segment, converted to revenue at segment-specific average selling prices, then layered with accessories attach, services and SADC re-export. The build is deliberately conservative in Year 1 and ramps as channel relationships and repeat purchasing mature.

Table 8. Bottom-up unit build by segment (base case). Total units grow from ~14,000 to ~44,000.

Pricing, seasonality and geography

• Pricing dynamics. Hardware is price-transparent and USD-referenced; the business prices to a target blended margin rather than to a fixed rand price, passing landed-cost movements through where the market allows and defending margin through mix and services rather than through hardware mark-up.
• Seasonality. Demand peaks around the education procurement cycle (Q4–Q1 for the new academic year) and corporate budget cycles; the model assumes a modest seasonal skew and sizes the trade-finance facility to the peak stock build, not the average.
• Geography. Gauteng anchors the addressable base (the largest concentration of corporate and reseller demand); the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal follow; SADC corridors (Botswana, Namibia, Zambia) open from Year 2 and are served from the same Midrand hub.
• Customer-acquisition dynamics. B2B acquisition is relationship- and tender-led with a multi-month sales cycle but high retention; consumer acquisition is digital and transactional. The blended cost of acquisition falls each year as the repeat base grows.