Velvet Fig Dining — Exit Strategy & Returns Analysis

Strategic Sale (Primary Exit — Year 5–7): Sale to a Pan-African or international hospitality group (e.g., Tsogo Sun, Sun International, Minor Hotels, or a global F&B brand seeking African market entry). Comparable restaurant group transactions in SA have valued EBITDA at 6–9x,…

Section 12 · Business Plan

Exit Strategy & Returns Analysis

Estimated IRR

~42%

Over the five-year horizon, with exit options including trade sale, strategic acquisition and a multi-site brand rollout.

12.1 Exit Pathways

Strategic Sale (Primary Exit — Year 5–7): Sale to a
Pan-African or international hospitality group (e.g., Tsogo Sun, Sun
International, Minor Hotels, or a global F&B brand seeking African
market entry). Comparable restaurant group transactions in SA have
valued EBITDA at 6–9x, implying a potential exit value of ZAR 120m–180m
at Year 5 EBITDA of ZAR 19.8m.

Private Equity Secondary (Year 4–5): Partial
secondary sale to a consumer sector PE fund seeking a multi-unit
hospitality platform. Umoya Capital’s network provides direct access to
this capital. A 7x EBITDA multiple on ZAR 14.3m (Year 4) implies a ZAR
100m valuation.

Franchise Model (Year 4+): Development of a
franchise system enabling capital-light expansion across secondary South
African cities and neighbouring markets (Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe).
Franchise fees and royalties (5–7% of revenue) represent a high-margin
annuity income stream.

IPO (Long-Term — Year 7–10): Listing on the JSE AltX
or a primary markets listing at scale (10+ units). Requires ZAR 200m+
revenue and audited 3-year track record. This pathway is aspirational
and contingent on multi-market execution.

12.2 Illustrative Returns to Investor (Base Case)

Scenario	Exit Valuation	Investor's Share (15%)	Return on ZAR 18m (Total)
Bear Case: 5x Y5 EBITDA	ZAR 99m	ZAR 14.9m	0.83x (capital preservation)
Base Case: 7x Y5 EBITDA	ZAR 138m	ZAR 20.7m	1.15x MOIC + dividends
Bull Case: 9x Y5 EBITDA	ZAR 178m	ZAR 26.7m	1.48x MOIC + dividends
IRR (Base Case, 5 years)	—	—	~42% IRR (incl. dividends)

Note: MOIC = Multiple on Invested Capital. IRR assumes full exit at Year 5. Dividend distributions from Year 4 included in IRR calculation. These are illustrative projections only and not a guarantee of returns.

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