Velvet Fig Dining — Financial Projections

All financial projections are prepared on a going-concern basis, denominated in South African Rand (ZAR '000), and prepared in accordance with IFRS principles applicable to SMEs. Year 1 reflects a ramp-up period commencing January 2025, with full operations from Month 3 following…

Section 7 · Business Plan

Financial Projections

5-Year Revenue

ZAR 90 million

Reaching a 20% EBITDA margin (ZAR 7.2 million) by Year 2, with the net profit margin expanding to 23% and break-even around Month 18–20.

All financial projections are prepared on a going-concern basis, denominated in South African Rand (ZAR ‘000), and prepared in accordance with IFRS principles applicable to SMEs. Year 1 reflects a ramp-up period commencing January 2025, with full operations from Month 3 following a 6-month fit-out and pre-opening phase.

7.1 Revenue Model & Unit Economics

Unit Economics Metric	Year 1 (Ramp-Up)	Year 2 (Stabilised)
Seating Capacity	80 (launch)	120 (stabilised)
Operating Days / Year	300	330
Table Turns / Day	1.5x	2.0x
Average Spend per Cover	ZAR 380	ZAR 420
Annual Covers	36,000	79,200
Annual Dining Revenue	ZAR 13.7m	ZAR 33.3m
Beverage Attachment (20%)	ZAR 3.4m	ZAR 7.2m
Total Revenue	ZAR 18.0m	ZAR 36.0m
Food Cost %	45%	45%
Labour Cost %	25%	20%
EBITDA Margin	10%	20%+
Monthly Breakeven Revenue	ZAR 1.3m	—

Figure

Figure 1: Revenue Mix by Stream (Stabilised — Year 2+) — visualised from the accompanying data.

Figure 1: Revenue Mix by Stream (Stabilised — Year 2+)

7.2 Revenue & EBITDA Trend

Figure

Figure 2: 5-Year Revenue & EBITDA Projection (ZAR '000) — visualised from the accompanying data.

Figure 2: 5-Year Revenue & EBITDA Projection (ZAR ‘000)

Figure

Figure 3: EBITDA Margin Trajectory (%) — visualised from the accompanying data.

Figure 3: EBITDA Margin Trajectory (%)

7.3 Cost Structure

Figure

Figure 4: Operating Cost Structure by Year (ZAR '000) — visualised from the accompanying data.

Figure 4: Operating Cost Structure by Year (ZAR ‘000)

7.4 Monthly Year 1 Profit & Loss

The following table presents the monthly P&L for the inaugural trading year, reflecting the ramp-up trajectory, pre-opening costs in Month 1, and progressive revenue growth driven by increasing brand awareness and reservation uptake.

Monthly Year 1 P&L (ZAR '000)
	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	TOTAL
Revenue	900	1050	1200	1350	1350	1500	1500	1650	1650	1800	1800	2250	18000
COGS	(405)	(473)	(540)	(608)	(608)	(675)	(675)	(743)	(743)	(810)	(810)	(1013)	(8100)
Gross Profit	495	577	660	742	742	825	825	907	907	990	990	1237	9900
Opex	(2300)	(750)	(750)	(750)	(750)	(750)	(750)	(750)	(750)	(750)	(750)	(750)	(10100)
EBITDA	(1805)	(173)	(90)	(8)	(8)	75	75	157	157	240	240	487	(200)

7.5 Projected Profit & Loss Statement (5-Year)

Projected Profit & Loss (ZAR '000)
	Year 1 2025	Year 2 2026	Year 3 2027	Year 4 2028	Year 5 2029
Revenue	18,000	36,000	42,000	65,000	90,000
Dine-In (75%)	13,500	27,000	31,500	48,750	67,500
Beverages (20%)	3,600	7,200	8,400	13,000	18,000
Delivery & Takeaway (5%)	900	1,800	2,100	3,250	4,500
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)	(8,100)	(14,400)	(16,800)	(26,000)	(36,000)
Food Cost (45%)	(8,100)	(14,400)	(16,800)	(26,000)	(36,000)
GROSS PROFIT	9,900	21,600	25,200	39,000	54,000
Gross Margin %	55%	60%	60%	60%	60%
Operating Expenses
Labour & Staff Costs	(4,500)	(7,200)	(8,400)	(11,050)	(15,300)
Rent & Occupancy	(1,800)	(1,800)	(1,800)	(1,800)	(1,800)
Utilities & Maintenance	(540)	(1,080)	(1,260)	(1,950)	(2,700)
Marketing & Advertising	(540)	(720)	(840)	(1,300)	(1,800)
Technology & POS	(180)	(180)	(180)	(360)	(360)
Insurance & Compliance	(180)	(240)	(240)	(360)	(360)
Other Operating Costs	(360)	(720)	(840)	(1,430)	(1,980)
Total Operating Expenses	(8,100)	(11,940)	(13,560)	(18,250)	(24,300)
EBITDA	1,800	9,660	11,640	20,750	29,700
EBITDA Margin %	10%	27%	28%	32%	33%
Depreciation & Amortisation	(900)	(900)	(900)	(1,200)	(1,200)
EBIT	900	8,760	10,740	19,550	28,500
Finance Charges (Interest)	(540)	(540)	(540)	(360)	(180)
Profit Before Tax (PBT)	360	8,220	10,200	19,190	28,320
Income Tax (28% CIT)	(101)	(2,302)	(2,856)	(5,373)	(7,930)
NET PROFIT AFTER TAX	259	5,918	7,344	13,817	20,390
Net Margin %	1%	16%	17%	21%	23%

Note: Year 4 and Year 5 revenue reflects the addition of 2 additional locations (Johannesburg Sandton and Durban Umhlanga). Corporate income tax calculated at 28% per SARS standard rate for companies. IFRS 16 lease accounting applied to operating lease obligations.

7.6 Projected Balance Sheet

Projected Balance Sheet (ZAR '000)
	Year 1 2025	Year 2 2026	Year 3 2027	Year 4 2028	Year 5 2029
ASSETS
Non-Current Assets
Property, Plant & Equipment	7,200	6,300	5,400	8,400	7,200
Intangible Assets (Brand/IP)	1,800	1,440	1,080	720	360
Right-of-Use Asset (IFRS 16)	4,320	3,600	2,880	2,160	1,440
Total Non-Current Assets	13,320	11,340	9,360	11,280	9,000
Current Assets
Inventories	360	720	840	1,300	1,800
Trade & Other Receivables	900	1,800	2,100	3,250	4,500
Cash & Cash Equivalents	1,440	4,860	8,640	16,110	29,610
Total Current Assets	2,700	7,380	11,580	20,660	35,910
TOTAL ASSETS	16,020	18,720	20,940	31,940	44,910
EQUITY & LIABILITIES
Equity
Share Capital	18,000	18,000	18,000	18,000	18,000
Retained Earnings / (Deficit)	(259)	5,659	13,003	26,820	47,210
Total Equity	17,741	23,659	31,003	44,820	65,210
Non-Current Liabilities
Long-Term Borrowings	0	0	0	0	0
Lease Liability (IFRS 16 LT)	3,600	2,880	2,160	1,440	720
Total Non-Current Liabilities	3,600	2,880	2,160	1,440	720
Current Liabilities
Trade & Other Payables	1,260	2,520	2,940	4,550	6,300
Lease Liability (Current)	720	720	720	720	720
Tax Payable	101	2,302	2,856	5,373	7,930
Total Current Liabilities	2,081	5,542	6,516	10,643	14,950
TOTAL EQUITY & LIABILITIES	23,422	32,081	39,679	56,903	80,880

Notes: PPE depreciated over 8 years straight-line on fit-out; 5 years on equipment. Right-of-use assets and associated lease liabilities recognised per IFRS 16. Intangible assets (brand development costs) amortised over 5 years. No external debt financing assumed in the base case; the ZAR 18m investment is structured as equity.

7.7 Projected Statement of Cash Flows

Projected Statement of Cash Flows (ZAR '000)
	Year 1 2025	Year 2 2026	Year 3 2027	Year 4 2028	Year 5 2029
OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Net Profit After Tax	259	5,918	7,344	13,817	20,390
Adjustments:
Depreciation & Amortisation	900	900	900	1,200	1,200
Finance Charges (non-cash)	0	0	0	0	0
Changes in Working Capital:
(Increase)/Decrease in Inventory	(360)	(360)	(120)	(460)	(500)
(Increase)/Decrease in Receivables	(900)	(900)	(300)	(1,150)	(1,250)
Increase/(Decrease) in Payables	1,260	1,260	420	1,610	1,750
Net Cash from Operations	1,159	6,818	8,244	15,017	21,590
INVESTING ACTIVITIES
Purchase of PPE	(8,100)	0	0	(4,200)	0
Brand/IP Development	(2,000)	0	0	0	0
Refurbishment Capex	0	0	0	0	0
Net Cash from Investing	(10,100)	0	0	(4,200)	0
FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Proceeds from Share Capital	18,000	0	0	0	0
Repayment of Lease Liability	(720)	(720)	(720)	(720)	(720)
Finance Charges Paid	(540)	(540)	(540)	(360)	(180)
Net Cash from Financing	16,740	(1,260)	(1,260)	(1,080)	(900)
NET CHANGE IN CASH	7,799	5,558	6,984	9,737	20,690
Opening Cash Balance	0	1,440	6,998	13,982	23,719
CLOSING CASH BALANCE	1,440	4,860	8,640	16,110	29,610

Figure

Figure 5: Cumulative Net Cash Flow (ZAR '000) — Breakeven ~Year 3.5 — visualised from the accompanying data.

Figure 5: Cumulative Net Cash Flow (ZAR ‘000) — Breakeven ~Year 3.5

The business achieves positive cumulative cash flow in Year 4, driven by strong operating cash generation from Year 2 onwards. The negative Year 1 position reflects the ZAR 10.1m capital investment in fit-out and brand infrastructure. No dividend distributions are projected before Year 4.

7.8 Sensitivity Analysis

The following sensitivity table presents three revenue scenarios for Year 2, demonstrating the resilience of the business model. Even in a bear case scenario (20% revenue shortfall), the business remains operationally profitable at a 14% EBITDA margin.

Scenario	Y2 Revenue	EBITDA %	EBITDA (ZAR)	Free Cash Flow	Recommendation
Bear Case (‑20% Rev)	ZAR 28.8m	14%	ZAR 4.0m	Marginal	Monitor
Base Case	ZAR 36.0m	20%	ZAR 7.2m	Positive	Proceed
Bull Case (+20% Rev)	ZAR 43.2m	25%	ZAR 10.8m	Strong	Accelerate

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