Cluck ’n Go — Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
To assess the robustness of the financial projections and investment returns under varying market conditions, three scenarios have been modelled: a base case reflecting management's best estimates, a bear case assuming a 20% revenue shortfall, and a bull case modelling a 20%…
Section 10 · Business Plan
Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
To assess the robustness of the financial projections and investment returns under varying market conditions, three scenarios have been modelled: a base case reflecting management's best estimates, a bear case assuming a 20% revenue shortfall, and a bull case modelling a 20%…
Across bear, base and bull scenarios, with a base-case 22% IRR and a 3.5-year payback.
To assess the robustness of the financial projections and investment returns under varying market conditions, three scenarios have been modelled: a base case reflecting management’s best estimates, a bear case assuming a 20% revenue shortfall, and a bull case modelling a 20% revenue outperformance.
| Scenario | Year 5 Revenue | Year 5 EBITDA | IRR | NPV (12% discount) | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (–20%) | R21,600K | R4,500K | 12% | R2.1M | 5.5 years |
| Base Case | R27,000K | R7,827K | 22% | R8.5M | 3.5 years |
| Bull Case (+20%) | R32,400K | R11,200K | 35% | R16.2M | 2.5 years |
Figure 10.1: Sensitivity Analysis – Key Scenarios
The analysis confirms that even under bear-case assumptions, the investment generates a positive IRR of 12% and an NPV of R2.1 million, validating the fundamental viability of the business model. The base case delivers a compelling 22% IRR with a 3.5-year payback, while the bull case demonstrates significant upside potential at 35% IRR.
10.1 Key Sensitivity Variables
The financial model is most sensitive to the following variables, in order of impact: average transaction value (a 10% increase adds approximately 3 percentage points to IRR), daily customer count (directly correlated with revenue throughput), food cost percentage (every 1% improvement in COGS ratio adds approximately R187,500 to annual EBITDA at base revenue), and staff productivity (measured by revenue per employee).
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