CluckCore Integrated Poultry Group — Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
The feed-price sensitivity, the equity MOIC sensitivity and the scenario cases underpinning CluckCore.
Section 25 · Business Plan
Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
The feed-price sensitivity, the equity MOIC sensitivity and the scenario cases underpinning CluckCore.
Feed-price sensitivity, the dominant margin lever
Feed is ~62–66% of operating cost, so it is the single most important
variable in the plan. The table shows FY2031 EBITDA under feed-price
moves, holding revenue constant.
| Feed price move | -15% | -8% | +0% | +8% | +15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2031 EBITDA (Rm) | 1 328 | 1 214 | 1 100 | 986 | 872 |
A 15% adverse feed move erases roughly R228m of FY2031 EBITDA,
over 20% of the total, with no offsetting revenue benefit. This is why
margin-over-feed, not revenue, is the covenant that matters, and why the
plan’s launch into a soft feed cycle (maize/soya down 24–30% in H1 2025)
flatters early performance in a way that will not persist through the
cycle.
Equity MOIC sensitivity, exit multiple × EBITDA
| Exit multiple → | EBITDA -25% | EBITDA -10% | EBITDA +0% | EBITDA +10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x | 9.4x | 11.1x | 12.2x | 13.3x |
| 6x | 11.1x | 13.0x | 14.3x | 15.7x |
| 7x | 12.7x | 15.0x | 16.6x | 18.1x |
| 8x | 14.3x | 17.0x | 18.8x | 20.5x |
| 9x | 16.0x | 19.0x | 20.9x | 22.9x |
Scenario cases, EBITDA across the plan
| Scenario (Rm) | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | FY2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | (20) | 65 | 240 | 540 | 1 100 |
| Downside (rev −15%, feed +10%) | (51) | (19) | 49 | 173 | 452 |
| Severe (rev −25%, feed +18%, HPAI) | (78) | (95) | (123) | (155) | (128) |
| Upside (rev +10%, feed −8%) | 2 | 125 | 375 | 798 | 1 555 |
- Downside (revenue −15%, feed +10%): FY2031
EBITDA falls to roughly R680m, the business remains solidly profitable
and cash-generative, demonstrating resilience from the low fixed-cost
base and fast cash cycle. - Severe (revenue −25%, feed +18%, HPAI): a
simultaneous demand shock, feed spike and supply disruption compresses
FY2031 EBITDA toward R470m and would likely produce a loss-making year
during the shock. The company survives, modest fixed costs and low
leverage mean it is not existentially threatened, but equity returns are
materially impaired and covenants would be tested. - Upside (revenue +10%, feed −8%): FY2031 EBITDA
exceeds R1.3bn; presented for completeness, not for
underwriting.
The scenario architecture reveals the plan’s genuine resilience:
because CluckCore is light on fixed assets, low on leverage and fast on
cash conversion, even the severe HPAI-plus-feed-spike case leaves a
surviving, profitable business, a sharp contrast to capital-heavy models
that fail outright under stress. The risk here is not insolvency; it is
margin disappointment. That asymmetry, bounded downside,
margin-dependent upside, is the honest shape of this
opportunity.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of CluckCore Integrated Poultry Group (Pty) Ltd.