Market sizing follows a top-down structure cross-checked against outlet economics. The total addressable market, South African frozen-dessert and premium-treat spend, is roughly R45 billion. The serviceable addressable market, comprising premium experiential dessert, event-catering and franchise spend that the Company can realistically reach, is estimated at roughly R6 billion. The serviceable obtainable market, the Company’s Year-5 revenue of R125 million, is around 2% of SAM.
NoteAmple headroom; execution and brand are the constraints
Because Year-5 revenue is a small share of the serviceable market, the binding constraints on growth are not demand but the Company’s own execution, proving the flagship concept, building the brand, scaling consistently across formats, and recruiting quality franchisees. Market risk is therefore predominantly execution, brand and competition risk, addressed in Sections 9, 10 and 18.
Bottom-up cross-check
The Year-5 target reconciles bottom-up. The flagship and company stores, running at premium average tickets across high-footfall locations, together with a growing base of kiosks, mobile catering, delivery, franchised outlets and packaged products, build toward the R125 million total. No single channel carries the plan alone: retail stores (~R50m), kiosks (~R24m), franchise fees and royalties (~R17m), mobile catering (~R15m), packaged and merchandise (~R10m) and delivery (~R9m) diversify the base and provide several independent routes to scale.
Year-5 revenue bridge by channel
The Year-5 target is built from independent channel contributions, none dominant, which both diversifies risk and provides several routes to the number.
|
Channel |
Year-5 revenue (R m) |
Share |
|---|---|---|
|
Retail stores |
50 |
40% |
|
Shopping-centre kiosks |
24 |
19% |
|
Franchise fees & royalties |
17 |
14% |
|
Mobile catering & events |
15 |
12% |
|
Packaged & merchandise |
10 |
8% |
|
Delivery platforms |
9 |
7% |
|
Total |
125 |
100% |