Nexora Capital — Projected Income Statement

The projected income statement and the revenue, cost and profitability trajectory underpinning Nexora.

Section 22 · Business Plan

Projected Income Statement

The projected income statement and the revenue, cost and profitability trajectory underpinning Nexora.

R million	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029	FY2030	FY2031
Revenue	55	160	420	980	1 900
Operating expenses (incl. cost of risk)	-77	-142	-324	-690	-1 280
EBITDA	-22	18	96	290	620
Depreciation & amortisation	-37,5	-48,8	-63,8	-85,0	-77,5
EBITA / EBIT	-59,5	-30,8	32,3	205,0	542,5
Warehouse interest	-5,5	-26,0	-75,2	-182,4	-378,5
RCF interest	-0,0	-0,0	-0,0	-0,0	-13,8
Interest income on cash	15,7	29,3	23,5	13,8	4,9
Profit before tax	-49,3	-27,5	-19,5	36,4	155,2
Taxation (27%)	-0,0	-0,0	-0,0	-0,0	-25,7
Profit after tax	-49,3	-27,5	-19,5	36,4	129,5

EBITDA margin expands from −40% to 33% as the cost base amortises
over the growing revenue line; cost-to-income falls from 140% to 67%.
PBT breakeven arrives in FY2030, one year after EBITDA breakeven once
full funding costs and depreciation are charged. The assessed-loss
position peaks at R96m at end-FY2029 and shelters
FY2030 profits entirely; the first cash tax payment of R26m falls in
FY2031.

Figure 13

Figure 13: FY2031 profit bridge, revenue to profit after tax

Figure 14

Figure 14: Path to profitability, PBT breakeven in FY2030

Figure 15

Figure 15: Profit after tax and return on equity

Return on equity turns positive in FY2030 and reaches 15.8% by
FY2031, respectable but not yet exceptional for a specialty lender,
reflecting the drag of the still-large surplus equity base in the early
years and full warehouse funding costs. The trajectory beyond the plan
period is the more important signal: with the platform cost base built
and the assessed losses consumed, incremental book growth converts to
earnings at a materially higher marginal ROE.

Figure 16

Figure 16: Cost-to-income convergence toward specialty-lender benchmark

Cost-to-income falls from 140% in FY2027 to 67% by FY2031, converging
toward, but not yet reaching, the ~60% benchmark of seasoned SA
specialty lenders. The residual gap is a deliberate reinvestment choice:
the plan continues funding regional expansion and product build through
the P&L rather than optimising the final-year ratio. Investors
preferring a harvested profile can read the FY2031 run-rate at roughly
62% excluding growth investment.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Nexora Capital (Pty) Ltd.