Nexora Capital — Macroeconomic Context, South Africa
The key macro assumptions used in the model and why the cycle favours SME fintech underpinning Nexora.
Section 4 · Business Plan
Macroeconomic Context, South Africa
The key macro assumptions used in the model and why the cycle favours SME fintech underpinning Nexora.
The macroeconomic backdrop shapes both the demand side (SME credit
appetite and resilience) and the funding side (cost and availability of
wholesale debt) of this plan. South Africa entered 2026 with modestly
improving fundamentals: inflation within the SARB’s 3–6% target band, a
repo-rate easing cycle that has brought prime lending down from its 2023
peak, and gradually stabilising electricity supply following structural
reforms in energy markets. GDP growth remains structurally constrained
at roughly 1–2%, which paradoxically strengthens the SME-finance thesis:
in a low-growth economy, working-capital velocity, not expansion capex,
is the binding constraint for small businesses, and cash-flow finance is
the product that unlocks it.
Key Macro Assumptions Used in the Model
| Parameter | Assumption | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| 3-month JIBAR | 7.15% flat | Mid-2026 market level, held flat for conservatism |
| Warehouse margin | JIBAR + 425bps | Comparable SA fintech warehouse pricing, senior secured |
| Effective cost of funds | ≈11.4% p.a. | Blended senior warehouse rate |
| CPI inflation | 4.5% midpoint | SARB target band midpoint |
| Corporate tax rate | 27% | Current SA rate; assessed-loss carry-forward applied |
| ZAR/USD context | Gradual real depreciation | Relevant to Nexora Trade FX margins only |
Why the Cycle Favours SME Fintech
Three cyclical forces converge in Nexora’s favour. First, bank risk
appetite for unsecured SME exposure remains constrained by Basel-driven
capital treatment, keeping the incumbent supply gap open. Second, the
rate-cutting cycle compresses warehouse funding costs faster than
NCA-capped lending yields decline, widening net spread through the plan
period. Third, the maturation of open-banking rails, real-time payments
(PayShap) and cloud accounting penetration materially improves the data
available for underwriting, the raw material of Nexora’s credit engine.
The model nevertheless holds JIBAR flat at 7.15% rather than assuming
further cuts, embedding conservatism in the funding-cost line.
quantified
Every 100bps move in JIBAR changes FY2031 warehouse interest by
approximately R44m (±34% of base-case PAT). The sensitivity analysis and
tornado chart in the Financial Plan quantify this explicitly; the
warehouse term sheet should include the option to fix or cap a portion
of the reference rate once the book exceeds R1.5bn.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Nexora Capital (Pty) Ltd.