Nexora Capital — Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis
The three scenarios and the single-variable sensitivities on FY2031 PAT underpinning Nexora.
Section 26 · Business Plan
Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis
The three scenarios and the single-variable sensitivities on FY2031 PAT underpinning Nexora.
Three Scenarios
| Parameter | Downside | Base | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue vs sponsor | −25% | As briefed | +15% |
| FY2031 revenue (Rm) | 1,425 | 1,900 | 2,185 |
| FY2031 EBITDA (Rm) | ≈383 | 620 | ≈905 |
| FY2031 book (Rm) | 4,125 | 5,500 | 6,325 |
| PBT breakeven | FY2031 | FY2030 | FY2029 |
| Series B requirement | Larger & earlier | R300–400m at M40 | Optional / smaller |
The downside case assumes competitive response compresses volumes and
fee-line adoption disappoints (25% revenue haircut) while the cost base
flexes only partially (97% retained). EBITDA remains positive from
FY2029 but PBT breakeven slips a year and the first-loss gap widens, the
scenario in which the M40 raise becomes existential rather than
expansionary. The upside case reflects faster fee-line adoption and
regional acceleration.
Single-Variable Sensitivities (FY2031 PAT)
Revenue level dominates (±R190m per ±10%), followed by cost of risk
(±R83m per ±150bps) and warehouse margin (±R66m per ±150bps). The
asymmetric managerial implication: underwriting-model performance and
funding-margin negotiation are worth more management attention than any
single growth lever, because they operate on the full stock of the book
rather than the annual flow of new business.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Nexora Capital (Pty) Ltd.