The Pie Foundry Business Plan — Financial Plan & Projections

15.1 Basis of preparation

Sponsor headline revenue and EBITDA are preserved exactly as briefed. Everything beneath EBITDA is independently re-derived: depreciation on a component basis from the capital-expenditure register, interest on a term-debt facility, South African corporate tax at 27% with assessed-loss carry-forward, and working capital at 8% of revenue. The three statements are integrated so the balance sheet ties to zero in every year, enforced by an automated assertion. All figures are nominal rand millions unless stated.

15.2 Key assumptions

Assumption	Value	Basis
Corporate tax rate	27%	SA rate; turnover >R20m so no SBC relief
Working capital	8% of revenue	Inventory + trade receivables net of payables
Term debt	R9.8m at ~13.5%	Prime (10.5%) + 300bps; 6-yr, Year-1 capital grace
Equity	R18.2m	Founders + growth capital; first-loss
Depreciation	Component approach	Facility 20-yr; equipment 10-yr; fleet 5-yr; fit-out 6-yr; tech 4-yr
Repo / prime	7.0% / 10.5%	SARB, mid-2026
Exit valuation	6×–10× EV/EBITDA	Food QSR / manufacturing comparables

Analyst flagRe-derived net profit versus the sponsor’s illustrative figures

Preserving revenue and EBITDA exactly, the fully-loaded model produces net profit of approximately (R0.3m), R3.0m, R9.2m, R17.9m and R31.0m across Years 1–5, close to the sponsor’s illustrative R1.0m / R4.2m / R10.5m / R18.9m / R31.6m in the later years, but with Year 1 around breakeven once depreciation, interest and the ramp are fully absorbed. The divergence is the honest cost of loading every expense line; it is disclosed rather than smoothed.

Figure 14. *Net profit after tax: re-derived vs sponsor illustrative.*

15.3 Projected profit & loss

R millions	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	22	48	89	142	215
EBITDA	3.1	8.2	17.4	30.1	48.8
Depreciation & amortisation	(2.1)	(2.9)	(3.8)	(4.8)	(5.8)
EBIT	1.0	5.3	13.6	25.3	43.0
Net interest	(1.3)	(1.3)	(1.1)	(0.8)	(0.5)
Profit before tax	(0.3)	4.0	12.6	24.5	42.5
Taxation (27%)	0.0	(1.0)	(3.4)	(6.6)	(11.5)
Net profit after tax	(0.3)	3.0	9.2	17.9	31.0
Net margin	(1.5%)	6.3%	10.3%	12.6%	14.4%

Figure 15. *EBITDA and margin trajectory.*

Figure 16. *Year-5 bridge: EBITDA to net profit.*

15.4 Projected cash flow statement

R millions	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
EBITDA	3.1	8.2	17.4	30.1	48.8
Taxation paid	0.0	(1.0)	(3.4)	(6.6)	(11.5)
Working-capital movement	(1.8)	(2.1)	(3.3)	(4.2)	(5.8)
Operating cash flow	1.3	5.1	10.7	19.2	31.5
Capital expenditure	(19.2)	(5.0)	(7.5)	(9.0)	(9.0)
Interest paid	(1.3)	(1.3)	(1.1)	(0.8)	(0.5)
Debt principal repaid	0.0	(2.0)	(2.0)	(2.0)	(2.0)
Equity drawn	18.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Closing cash	8.8	5.7	5.9	13.4	33.4

Operating cash flow is positive from Year 1 and closing cash never falls below roughly R5.7 million, so the R28 million raise funds the build and ramp without a further round, provided the term-loan grace and the contingency buffer are in place. Cash accumulates to over R33 million by Year 5 as the manufacturing platform matures and franchise royalties compound.

Figure 17. *Operating cash flow, capex and closing cash.*

Figure 18. *Free cash flow build and cumulative position.*

15.5 Projected balance sheet

R millions	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Net property, plant & equipment	17.1	19.2	22.9	27.1	30.3
Net working capital	1.8	3.8	7.1	11.4	17.2
Cash & equivalents	8.8	5.7	5.9	13.4	33.4
Total assets	27.7	28.7	35.9	51.9	80.9
Term debt	9.8	7.8	5.9	3.9	2.0
Share capital	18.2	18.2	18.2	18.2	18.2
Retained earnings	(0.3)	2.7	11.8	29.7	60.7
Total equity	17.9	20.9	30.0	47.9	78.9
Total funding	27.7	28.7	35.9	51.9	80.9

StrengthThe balance sheet ties to zero every year

Total assets equal term debt plus equity in every projection year, enforced by an automated assertion (maximum difference: 0.0). The business de-levers rapidly, net debt turns to a net cash position by Year 3, and retained earnings rebuild the small Year-1 loss by Year 2.

Figure 19. *Balance-sheet build: asset composition.*

15.6 Key financial ratios

The ratio summary below distils the plan’s financial trajectory: margins expand as manufacturing scale and franchise royalties mature, the business de-levers from Year 1 gearing to a net-cash position by Year 3, and returns on capital build as the asset base is sweated across a growing network.

Ratio	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
EBITDA margin	14.1%	17.1%	19.6%	21.2%	22.7%
Net margin	(1.5%)	6.3%	10.3%	12.6%	14.4%
DSCR (×)	1.01×	1.56×	3.56×	6.99×	12.65×
Net debt / EBITDA (×)	0.3×	0.3×	0.0×	(0.3)×	(0.6)×
Return on equity	(1.9%)	14.4%	30.5%	37.4%	39.3%