Market sizing follows a top-down structure cross-checked against unit economics. The total addressable market, South Africa’s QSR, bakery and convenience-food wallet, is estimated at roughly R95 billion. The serviceable addressable market, comprising pies, pastries, frozen convenience and catering within the Company’s realistic reach, is roughly R18 billion. The serviceable obtainable market, the Company’s Year-5 revenue of R215 million, is approximately 1.2% of SAM.
NoteHeadroom is ample; execution is the constraint
Because Year-5 revenue is barely over 1% of the serviceable market, the binding constraint on growth is not demand but the Company’s own execution, facility commissioning, store rollout, franchise recruitment and brand build. Market risk is therefore predominantly execution risk, addressed in Sections 12 and 18.
Bottom-up cross-check
The Year-5 target reconciles bottom-up. A network of roughly 142 outlets (12 company-owned, ~130 franchised) at realistic average unit volumes, plus a growing frozen-retail and supermarket-distribution business and a corporate, school and institutional catering line, supports the R215 million total. No single channel carries the plan alone: company retail (~R55m), franchise-derived revenue (~R100m), wholesale and frozen (~R45m) and catering (~R15m) diversify the base.
