SA Best Peanut Butter Business Plan — Appendix B: Volume, Kernel and Cost Schedules
Detailed volume, kernel purchase and cost schedules underpinning the revenue build and the gross margin.
Appendix B: Volume, Kernel and Cost Schedules
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Aflatoxin: The Question That Defines the Business
- 3. Market, Products and Pricing
- 4. Regulation and Food Safety
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Operations
- 7. Financial Plan
- 8. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 9. Investment Analysis
- 10. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 11. Risk Analysis
- 12. Implementation Roadmap
- 13. Key Performance Indicators
- 14. Key Assumptions
- 15. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Volume, Kernel and Cost Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Working Capital Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- B.1 Volume and mix
- B.2 Price and kernel cost path
- B.3 Unit economics per tonne
- B.4 Kernel grades and the control programme
- B.5 Break-even by year
B.1 Volume and mix
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tonnes produced |
900 |
1 380 |
1 720 |
1 990 |
2 150 |
|
Installed capacity, tonnes |
1 215 |
2 248 |
2 248 |
2 248 |
2 248 |
|
Capacity utilisation |
74.1% |
61.4% |
76.5% |
88.5% |
95.6% |
|
Share of national market |
3.3% |
5.0% |
6.2% |
7.2% |
7.8% |
|
Own brand 400 g jar |
20.4% |
25.9% |
29.3% |
31.4% |
33.4% |
|
Own brand 1 kg jar |
9.6% |
12.1% |
13.7% |
14.6% |
15.6% |
|
Private label |
42.5% |
37.6% |
34.6% |
32.8% |
31.0% |
|
Food service |
20.0% |
17.7% |
16.3% |
15.4% |
14.6% |
|
Industrial bulk |
7.5% |
6.6% |
6.1% |
5.8% |
5.5% |
|
Own brand total |
30% |
38% |
43% |
46% |
49% |
B.2 Price and kernel cost path
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Blended selling price, R/kg |
56.16 |
60.97 |
65.63 |
70.26 |
75.22 |
|
Kernel purchase price, R/t |
27 900 |
29 797 |
31 823 |
33 987 |
36 299 |
|
Effective kernel cost, R/t of product |
26 247 |
28 032 |
29 938 |
31 974 |
34 148 |
|
Kernel cost as % of revenue |
46.7% |
46.0% |
45.6% |
45.5% |
45.4% |
|
Revenue per tonne, R |
56 159 |
60 971 |
65 633 |
70 265 |
75 218 |
|
Contribution per tonne, R |
13 515 |
14 971 |
16 261 |
17 451 |
18 723 |
B.3 Unit economics per tonne
|
Per tonne of finished product |
Amount |
Share of revenue |
|---|---|---|
|
Revenue at the blended price |
56 159 |
100.0% |
|
Certified kernels |
(26 247) |
46.7% |
|
Packaging |
(6 485) |
11.5% |
|
Conversion |
(5 380) |
9.6% |
|
Trade spend on own brand |
(1 432) |
2.5% |
|
Outbound logistics and additives |
(3 100) |
5.5% |
|
Contribution per tonne |
13 515 |
24.1% |
B.4 Kernel grades and the control programme
|
Grade |
Purchase price |
Intake rejection |
Effective cost per tonne of product |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Commodity, sundry and splits |
R22 600 |
11.5% |
R23 111 |
|
Certified, batch-tested |
R27 900 |
3.8% |
R26 247 |
|
Premium |
R5 300 |
R3 136 |
|
The arithmetic of testing against recalling |
Amount |
|---|---|
|
Stock written off |
9 703 173 |
|
Sales lost while delisted |
2 627 943 |
|
Regaining listings and trade support |
2 400 000 |
|
Retrieval, investigation and communication |
1 150 000 |
|
Total cost of a one-month recall |
15 881 116 |
|
Certified kernel premium, annual |
6 742 400 |
|
Aflatoxin testing and laboratory, annual |
1 913 500 |
|
Total annual control programme |
8 655 900 |
|
Recall as a multiple of the annual programme |
1.8x |
B.5 Break-even by year
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Fixed cash costs, R |
15 690 142 |
19 401 600 |
20 468 688 |
21 594 466 |
22 782 161 |
|
Contribution per tonne, R |
13 515 |
14 971 |
16 261 |
17 451 |
18 723 |
|
Break-even volume, tonnes |
1 161 |
1 296 |
1 259 |
1 237 |
1 217 |
|
Installed capacity, tonnes |
1 215 |
2 248 |
2 248 |
2 248 |
2 248 |
|
Break-even as a share of capacity |
95.6% |
57.7% |
56.0% |
55.0% |
54.1% |
|
Planned volume, tonnes |
900 |
1 380 |
1 720 |
1 990 |
2 150 |
|
Margin of safety |
-29.0% |
6.1% |
26.8% |
37.8% |
43.4% |