SA Best Peanut Butter Business Plan — Key Assumptions

Every volume, kernel price, selling price, cost and funding assumption behind the model, and those most in need of verification.

Key Assumptions

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14.1 Volume, mix and pricing
14.2 Capital, cost and funding
14.3 Assumptions most in need of independent verification

14.1 Volume, mix and pricing

Assumption	Year 1	Year 5	Basis
Tonnes produced	900	2 150	7.8% of a national market of 27 641 t at maturity
Installed capacity	1 215 t, one shift	2 248 t, two shifts	Second shift added in Year 2
Capacity utilisation	74.1%	95.6%
Own-brand share of volume	30%	49%	The mix shift that carries the margin improvement
Own brand 400 g jar	R69.50/kg	R88.42/kg	Escalated at 6.2%; retail shelf is R97.50 to R137.50/kg
Private label	R54.50/kg	R69.34/kg	The retailer owns the brand
Blended selling price	R56.16/kg	R75.22/kg	Rises faster than 6.2% because the mix shifts to own brand
Kernel purchase price	R27 900/t	R35 508/t	Escalated at 6.8% — faster than selling prices
Recipe ratio	0.905 t kernel per t product	0.905	Added oil, sugar, salt and stabiliser offset the roasting and blanching loss
Intake rejection	3.8%	3.8%	On certified kernels; 11.5% on commodity grade
Effective kernel cost	R26 247/t	R34 148/t	45.4% of revenue at maturity
Contribution per tonne	R13 515	R18 723	25.2% of revenue at Year 1 prices
Trade spend on own brand	8.5% of own-brand revenue	8.5%	Separate from the R1 680 000 brand-building line in fixed costs

14.2 Capital, cost and funding

Assumption	Value	Basis
Processing lines — roasting, grinding, filling	R19 100 000	Roasting and blanching, grinding and homogenising, jar and pail filling
Optical sorting and aflatoxin laboratory	R8 300 000	17.5% of capital, bought for food safety rather than product quality
Building fit-out and conditioned storage	R8 700 000	Food-grade finishes; aflatoxin develops in poor storage
Utilities, warehouse, generation and inspection	R7 700 000	Steam, compressed air, racking, standby generation, metal detection and X-ray
Systems, professional fees and commissioning	R3 600 000	Traceability and ERP over five years; fees and validation over ten
Total capital expenditure	R47 400 000
Second shift capital, Year 2	R3 400 000	Adds R2 700 000 of annual fixed cost
Working capital at launch	R16 400 000	Kernel stock and finished goods
Retail listing fees and launch trade	R3 600 000	Listings are bought, not won
Pre-operational, brand and certification	R6 720 000	Charged to Year 1 below EBITDA
Total funding requirement	R74 120 000
Fixed cash costs, one shift	R15 690 142	Escalated at 5.5%
Promoter and investor equity	R33 120 000	44.7% of the requirement
DFI facility and senior debt	R41 000 000	Eight years at 11.42% with a one-year capital moratorium
Working capital facility	R26 000 000	Committed at drawdown; drawn to R25 689 744
Corporate tax	27% with assessed losses carried forward	Section 20 limitation applied; first charge in Year 4
Debtor / kernel stock / finished goods / creditor days	48 / 42 / 24 / 46	Retail chains pay in 48 days
Exit multiple	7.0x Year 5 EBITDA	Branded food asset in a defensive category

14.3 Assumptions most in need of independent verification

Assumption	Modelled	Verification required	Consequence if wrong
Certified kernels at R27 900 a tonne	Escalated at 6.8% a year	Firm supplier quotations with certificates of analysis, before construction	Kernels are 45.4% of revenue. A 12% move is worth R17.6m of Year 5 EBITDA
Retail listings winnable at the assumed prices	Own brand at 30% rising to 49% of volume	Private label agreements and own-brand listing presentations before drawdown	An 8% price shortfall removes R12.4m of Year 5 EBITDA. Without listings the plant sells at food service prices
2 150 tonnes at maturity	7.8% of the national market	Category share analysis and committed volume by channel	Break-even is 1 161 t on one shift. A 15% shortfall removes R4.2m
Aflatoxin control at 3.8% intake rejection	On certified kernels	Supplier audit history and pre-shipment test records	A three-point movement is worth R5.3m of Year 5 EBITDA
FSSC 22000 achievable before first production	Two-month certification phase	Pre-assessment against the scheme before construction completes	Without it the plant is limited to food service and industrial channels
Working capital at 15.5% of revenue	48 debtor days, 42 kernel days	Terms confirmed with retail customers and kernel suppliers	The facility is drawn to R25 689 744 against R26 000 000 committed
The 20% import duty holds	Granted 24 July 2026	Monitor the ITAC review cycle and the groundnut rebate investigation	Worth about R13.1m a year of protection, and it does not reach EU, UK, EFTA or SADC

The list is ordered by consequence. The first two determine whether the business earns a margin at all, and both are settled before construction for the cost of professional time. The third and fourth determine whether the plant fills itself and holds its control programme. The last three determine the financing structure and the competitive backdrop.

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