SA Best Peanut Butter Business Plan — Break-Even and Debt Service
Break-even at 1,161 tonnes against 2,150 planned, and debt service across three loss-making years.
Break-Even and Debt Service
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Aflatoxin: The Question That Defines the Business
- 3. Market, Products and Pricing
- 4. Regulation and Food Safety
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Operations
- 7. Financial Plan
- 8. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 9. Investment Analysis
- 10. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 11. Risk Analysis
- 12. Implementation Roadmap
- 13. Key Performance Indicators
- 14. Key Assumptions
- 15. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Volume, Kernel and Cost Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Working Capital Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- 8.1 Break-even
- 8.2 Debt service
8.1 Break-even
|
Break-even measure |
Value |
Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
|
Contribution per tonne, Year 1 |
R13 515 |
24.1% of revenue |
|
Fixed cash costs, one shift |
R15 690 142 |
Before the second shift is added |
|
Break-even volume, one shift |
1 161 t |
4.20% of the national market |
|
One-shift capacity |
1 215 t |
Break-even is 95.6% of it |
|
Two-shift capacity |
2 248 t |
|
|
Planned volume at maturity |
2 150 t |
7.8% of the market |
|
Margin of safety at maturity |
43.4% |
How far volume can fall before losses |
|
Kernel price break-even |
R42 269/t |
Against a planned R27 900 — headroom 51.5% |
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Fixed cash costs, R |
15 690 142 |
19 401 600 |
20 468 688 |
21 594 466 |
22 782 161 |
|
Contribution per tonne, R |
13 515 |
14 971 |
16 261 |
17 451 |
18 723 |
|
Break-even volume, tonnes |
1 161 |
1 296 |
1 259 |
1 237 |
1 217 |
|
Installed capacity, tonnes |
1 215 |
2 248 |
2 248 |
2 248 |
2 248 |
|
Break-even as a share of capacity |
95.6% |
57.7% |
56.0% |
55.0% |
54.1% |
|
Planned volume, tonnes |
900 |
1 380 |
1 720 |
1 990 |
2 150 |
|
Margin of safety |
-29.0% |
6.1% |
26.8% |
37.8% |
43.4% |
On the kernel side the headroom is more comfortable. Contribution survives up to a purchase price of R42 269 a tonne, 51.5 per cent above the planned R27 900. That is genuine protection against a volatile input, though the sensitivity analysis in Section 10.1 still ranks kernel price second only to selling price.
8.2 Debt service
|
R |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Opening balance |
41 000 000 |
41 000 000 |
36 862 971 |
32 253 493 |
27 117 613 |
|
Interest at 11.42% |
4 682 200 |
4 682 200 |
4 209 751 |
3 683 349 |
3 096 831 |
|
Capital repaid |
— (moratorium) |
4 137 029 |
4 609 478 |
5 135 880 |
5 722 398 |
|
Total debt service |
4 682 200 |
8 819 229 |
8 819 229 |
8 819 229 |
8 819 229 |
|
Closing balance |
41 000 000 |
36 862 971 |
32 253 493 |
27 117 613 |
21 395 215 |
|
of which current portion |
4 137 029 |
4 609 478 |
5 135 880 |
5 722 398 |
6 351 862 |
|
of which non-current portion |
36 862 971 |
32 253 493 |
27 117 613 |
21 395 215 |
15 043 353 |
|
EBITDA |
(3 526 611) |
1 258 597 |
7 500 683 |
13 133 179 |
17 471 301 |
|
Debt service cover |
-0.75x |
0.14x |
0.85x |
1.49x |
1.98x |
|
Gearing |
76.4% |
91.0% |
93.3% |
86.0% |
72.4% |