Business Plan Africa Investor-Ready Plans

SA Best Peanut Butter Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register

Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact, with mitigations and the pre-committed trigger points adopted as policy.

Appendix D: Risk Register

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Risk	Likely	Impact	Mitigation and residual position
Aflatoxin exceedance and recall	Medium	Severe	A one-month recall costs R15881116 against a control programme of R8655900 a year. Mitigated by contracted supply with certificates of analysis, intake and batch testing, optical sorting and lot-level traceability that narrows a recall
Kernel price volatility	High	Severe	Kernels are 45.4% of revenue. Contribution reaches zero at R42269 a tonne against a planned R27 900 — headroom 51.5%. Mitigated by contracted supply and by blending local seasonal purchases with year-round imports
Retail listings not secured	High	Severe	Own-brand listings take longer than the plant takes to build. Mitigated by private label agreements covering at least half of Year 1 volume and by R3 600 000 of listing fees budgeted
Volume below plan	High	High	Break-even is 1161 t on one shift against a capacity of 1 215 t. Mitigated by private label filling the plant while own-brand listings are won
FSSC 22000 certification delayed	Medium	Severe	Without it the plant is limited to food service and industrial channels at materially lower prices. Mitigated by certification before the first commercial batch
Drought in the producing provinces	Medium	High	Local production averages about 62 000 t a year and is drought-exposed. Mitigated by import blending, at the cost of currency exposure
Tariff reviewed or reversed	Low	High	The 20% duty was granted on application and can be reviewed. It does not reach EU, UK, EFTA or SADC origins. The plan is structured to remain viable without it
Currency movement on imported kernels	High	Medium	The import portion is dollar-denominated. Mitigated by forward cover on contracted volumes
Working capital exceeds the facility	Medium	High	Working capital reaches R25069516 against a R26 000 000 facility. Mitigated by 42-day kernel stock rather than a full season, and by retaining earnings
Undeclared allergen incident	Low	Severe	Peanut is a declared major allergen; an undeclared allergen is as reportable as a mycotoxin exceedance. Mitigated by dedicated lines and R146 labelling control
Electricity cost and supply	High	Medium	Roasting and grinding are energy intensive at R1 180 a tonne. Standby generation is budgeted at R1 600 000
Second shift started before demand exists	Medium	Medium	Adds R2 700 000 of fixed cost. Mitigated by the Year 2 gate requiring contracted volume

D.1 Pre-committed trigger points

Point	Trigger	Committed response
Commissioning	Aflatoxin results not consistently below 4 ppb on trial batches	Do not commence commercial production. The internal limit is the control, not the regulatory one
Before drawdown	Less than 70% of Year 1 kernel requirement contracted	Defer construction. A plant without qualified supply cannot control the risk that defines it
Before drawdown	Less than 50% of Year 1 volume committed to private label	Defer. Own-brand listings take longer than the plant takes to build
Month 6 of trading	Intake rejection above 6% of certified deliveries	Re-audit the supplier base. Rejection at that level signals a sourcing failure, not bad luck
End of Year 1	Volume below 986 t	Engage lenders before the second shift is committed, not after
Any batch	A release test above the internal limit	Hold, investigate and widen the sampling. Never release against a single passing re-test
Any time	Own-brand share below 35% by Year 3	The margin improvement in this plan depends on the mix shift; review listings and trade investment

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