TransKora Logistics — Financial Projections
The following financial projections are based on management’s best estimates and assumptions, developed with advisory input from qualified financial professionals. All figures are presented in South African Rand (ZAR) millions unless otherwise stated.
Section 8 · Business Plan
Financial Projections
The following financial projections are based on management’s best estimates and assumptions, developed with advisory input from qualified financial professionals. All figures are presented in South African Rand (ZAR) millions unless otherwise stated.
Growing from ZAR 80 million in Year 1, reaching EBITDA profitability by Year 2, a 20.3% EBITDA margin and ZAR 9.9 million net profit by Year 5.
The following financial projections are based on management’s best estimates and assumptions, developed with advisory input from qualified financial professionals. All figures are presented in South African Rand (ZAR) millions unless otherwise stated.
8.1 Key Assumptions
| Assumption | Basis |
| Revenue growth rate | 15–20% p.a., driven by fleet expansion and client acquisition |
| Fleet utilisation rate | 65% in Year 1, increasing to 85% by Year 5 |
| Average revenue per trip | ZAR 95,000 (blended FTL/LTL/Reefer) |
| Fuel cost as % of revenue | 28–32%, declining with route optimisation |
| Driver cost per truck per month | ZAR 35,000 (incl. benefits, two drivers per truck) |
| Annual CPI escalation | 4.5–5.0% |
| Depreciation | Straight-line over 7 years (vehicles), 20 years (buildings) |
| Corporate tax rate | 27% (South African corporate income tax) |
| Debt interest rate | Prime + 2% (approximately 13%) |
8.2 Projected Profit and Loss Statement
| ZAR Millions | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 |
| Revenue | 80.0 | 95.0 | 115.0 | 140.0 | 165.0 |
| Cost of Sales | (60.0) | (70.3) | (83.9) | (100.8) | (117.2) |
| Gross Profit | 20.0 | 24.7 | 31.1 | 39.2 | 47.9 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 25.0% | 26.0% | 27.0% | 28.0% | 29.0% |
| Operating Expenses | |||||
| Salaries & Wages | (3.5) | (4.2) | (5.0) | (5.8) | (6.5) |
| Rent & Facilities | (1.2) | (1.3) | (1.4) | (1.5) | (1.6) |
| Insurance | (1.5) | (1.8) | (2.2) | (2.5) | (2.8) |
| Marketing & Sales | (1.0) | (1.1) | (1.2) | (1.3) | (1.4) |
| IT & Technology | (0.8) | (0.9) | (1.0) | (1.1) | (1.2) |
| General & Admin | (0.5) | (0.6) | (0.7) | (0.8) | (0.9) |
| Total Opex | (8.5) | (9.9) | (11.5) | (13.0) | (14.4) |
| EBITDA | 11.5 | 14.8 | 19.6 | 26.2 | 33.5 |
| Depreciation & Amort. | (10.0) | (11.0) | (14.0) | (15.5) | (16.0) |
| EBIT | 1.5 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 10.7 | 17.5 |
| Finance Costs | (6.2) | (5.8) | (5.3) | (4.7) | (4.0) |
| Profit Before Tax | (4.7) | (2.0) | 0.3 | 6.0 | 13.5 |
| Income Tax (27%) | – | – | (0.1) | (1.6) | (3.6) |
| Net Profit / (Loss) | (4.7) | (2.0) | 0.2 | 4.4 | 9.9 |
Note: The summary P&L in the executive summary reflects management’s optimistic scenario with higher fleet utilisation. The detailed projections above represent the base case, incorporating conservative ramp-up assumptions and full finance cost loading.
Figure 2: Projected Revenue & EBITDA (FY2026–FY2030)
Figure 3: Gross Margin Progression (FY2026–FY2030)
8.3 Projected Balance Sheet
| ZAR Millions | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 |
| ASSETS | |||||
| Non-Current Assets | |||||
| Property, Plant & Equipment | 85.0 | 89.0 | 110.0 | 106.5 | 100.5 |
| Intangible Assets (IT Systems) | 8.0 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| Total Non-Current Assets | 93.0 | 95.5 | 115.0 | 110.0 | 102.5 |
| Current Assets | |||||
| Trade Receivables | 10.0 | 12.0 | 14.5 | 17.5 | 20.6 |
| Cash & Equivalents | 5.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 34.0 |
| Inventory (Parts & Fuel) | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
| Total Current Assets | 17.0 | 18.0 | 19.5 | 35.0 | 58.6 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 110.0 | 113.5 | 134.5 | 145.0 | 161.1 |
| EQUITY & LIABILITIES | |||||
| Share Capital | 72.0 | 72.0 | 72.0 | 72.0 | 72.0 |
| Retained Earnings | (4.7) | (6.7) | (6.5) | (2.1) | 7.8 |
| Total Equity | 67.3 | 65.3 | 65.5 | 69.9 | 79.8 |
| Non-Current Liabilities | |||||
| Long-Term Debt | 38.0 | 33.0 | 48.0 | 42.0 | 36.0 |
| Current Liabilities | |||||
| Trade Payables | 8.0 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 14.0 | 16.5 |
| Current Portion of Debt | 5.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Provisions & Accruals | 1.7 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 13.1 | 22.8 |
| Total Liabilities | 42.7 | 48.2 | 69.0 | 75.1 | 81.3 |
| TOTAL EQUITY & LIABILITIES | 110.0 | 113.5 | 134.5 | 145.0 | 161.1 |
8.4 Projected Cash Flow Statement
| ZAR Millions | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 |
| OPERATING ACTIVITIES | |||||
| Net Profit / (Loss) | (4.7) | (2.0) | 0.2 | 4.4 | 9.9 |
| Add: Depreciation & Amort. | 10.0 | 11.0 | 14.0 | 15.5 | 16.0 |
| Working Capital Changes | 2.7 | (1.5) | (0.2) | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Net Cash from Operations | 8.0 | 7.5 | 14.0 | 23.0 | 29.0 |
| INVESTING ACTIVITIES | |||||
| Capital Expenditure | (105.0) | (15.0) | (35.0) | (12.0) | (10.0) |
| Net Cash from Investing | (105.0) | (15.0) | (35.0) | (12.0) | (10.0) |
| FINANCING ACTIVITIES | |||||
| Equity Raised | 72.0 | – | – | – | – |
| Debt Drawdown | 48.0 | – | 20.0 | – | – |
| Debt Repayment | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (6.0) | (6.0) |
| Finance Costs Paid | (6.2) | (5.8) | (5.3) | (4.7) | (4.0) |
| Dividends Paid | – | – | – | (2.0) | (5.0) |
| Net Cash from Financing | 108.8 | (10.8) | 9.7 | (12.7) | (15.0) |
| Net Change in Cash | 11.8 | (18.3) | (11.3) | (1.7) | 4.0 |
| Opening Cash Balance | – | 5.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 14.0 |
| Closing Cash Balance | 5.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 34.0 |
Figure 4: Cash Flow Summary (FY2026–FY2030)
8.5 Revenue by Service Line
Figure 5: Revenue Breakdown by Service Line (FY2026–FY2030)
8.6 Net Profit & Margin Analysis
Figure 6: Net Profit & Net Profit Margin (FY2026–FY2030)
8.7 Capital Expenditure Allocation
Figure 7: Capital Expenditure Allocation (ZAR 120m)
8.8 Break-Even Analysis
Based on the Company’s cost structure and revenue ramp-up assumptions, TransKora is projected to reach operational break-even (EBITDA positive) in Month 10 and net profit break-even by Month 18 of operations. The break-even analysis below illustrates the cumulative revenue and cost trajectories:
Figure 8: Break-Even Analysis
8.9 Key Financial Ratios
| Ratio | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 25.0% | 26.0% | 27.0% | 28.0% | 29.0% |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 17.0% | 18.7% | 20.3% |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | -5.9% | -2.1% | 0.2% | 3.1% | 6.0% |
| Return on Equity (%) | -7.0% | -3.1% | 0.3% | 6.3% | 12.4% |
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.82 | 0.69 | 0.53 |
| Current Ratio | 1.16 | 1.18 | 0.93 | 1.06 | 1.29 |
| Interest Cover (x) | 0.24x | 0.66x | 1.06x | 2.28x | 4.38x |
This document contains proprietary and confidential information. Distribution without written consent is prohibited.