Green Master Vegetables Business Plan — The Five-Year Build and Its Gates
The build from 8 to 45 hectares, and the water, performance and capital gate each expansion step must clear.
The Five-Year Build and Its Gates
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Why Limpopo
- 3. The Market and the Commission Problem
- 4. Water: The Binding Constraint
- 5. Open Field Versus Tunnels
- 6. Crop Plan and Rotation
- 7. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 8. Route to Market
- 9. Unit Economics
- 10. The Five-Year Build and Its Gates
- 11. Funding
- 12. People and Operations
- 13. Certification and Compliance
- 14. Financial Projections
- 15. Break-Even
- 16. Sensitivity and Scenarios
- 17. Risk Management
- 18. Implementation Timeline
- 19. Returns
- 20. Key Performance Indicators
- 21. Key Assumptions
- 22. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Year |
Hectares |
Focus |
Gate before proceeding |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
8.0 |
Establish. Water proven, drip installed, first tunnel, first crops through the winter window. |
Water use authorisation held; borehole yield proven by pump test in the dry season; yields within 15% of plan |
|
2 |
14.5 |
Prove the system repeats. Second tunnel. Direct customers begun. |
Direct channel above 20% of volume; EBITDA loss narrowing; reviewed financial statements |
|
3 |
24.0 |
Cross break-even. Second Blended Finance tranche. Certification begun. |
Water confirmed for 35 hectares; EBITDA positive; GLOBALG.A.P. process underway |
|
4 |
34.5 |
Scale within proven systems. First profitable year. |
Certification achieved; a retail or processor contract signed; agronomist in place |
|
5 |
45.0 |
Full operation with a management layer. |
Market channel below 60%; water confirmed for the full area |
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hectares under production |
8.0 |
14.5 |
24.0 |
34.5 |
45.0 |
|
of which tunnels |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
|
Direct channel share |
14.0% |
20.0% |
28.0% |
36.0% |
42.0% |
|
EBITDA, R’000 |
(390) |
(425) |
329 |
1 542 |
3 421 |
|
Break-even area at that year’s cost base, ha |
12.2 |
18.6 |
21.6 |
25.1 |
27.3 |
|
Position against break-even |
Below |
Below |
Above |
Above |
Above |
|
Closing cash, R’000 |
588 |
881 |
1 537 |
1 045 |
1 384 |
10.1 Why the farm crosses break-even in Year 3 and not before
Break-even area rises across the plan from 12.2 hectares in Year 1 to 27.3 in Year 5, because the fixed cost base grows as the farm adds management, agronomy, security and certification. The planted area rises faster, from 8.0 to 45.0. The two lines cross during Year 3, when 24 hectares are planted against a break-even of 21.6.
That crossing is not the result of cost control. Fixed costs rise from R1.13 million to R5.30 million, nearly fivefold. It is the result of gross margin per hectare rising from R92 500 to R193 800, through tunnel area, through cropping intensity, through yield, and through the channel shift. Area alone would not have done it; a farm that grew to 45 hectares while holding gross margin per hectare at the Year 1 level would still be below break-even.