Green Master Vegetables Business Plan — Key Assumptions
Every yield, price, cost, capital and funding assumption behind the model, stated so a funder can test each one independently.
Key Assumptions
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- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Why Limpopo
- 3. The Market and the Commission Problem
- 4. Water: The Binding Constraint
- 5. Open Field Versus Tunnels
- 6. Crop Plan and Rotation
- 7. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 8. Route to Market
- 9. Unit Economics
- 10. The Five-Year Build and Its Gates
- 11. Funding
- 12. People and Operations
- 13. Certification and Compliance
- 14. Financial Projections
- 15. Break-Even
- 16. Sensitivity and Scenarios
- 17. Risk Management
- 18. Implementation Timeline
- 19. Returns
- 20. Key Performance Indicators
- 21. Key Assumptions
- 22. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- 21.1 Production
- 21.2 Market, cost and funding
21.1 Production
|
Assumption |
Year 1 |
Year 5 |
Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Hectares under production |
8.0 |
45.0 |
Expansion gated on confirmed water at every stage |
|
of which tunnels |
1.0 |
4.5 |
1.5 hectares added a year from Year 3, funded from cash flow |
|
Open-field yield per hectare per crop |
24 t |
32 t |
Improving agronomy, soil analysis and irrigation scheduling |
|
Tunnel yield per hectare per crop |
80 t |
100 t |
Controlled environment; requires the skill the Year 4 gate provides |
|
Open-field crops per year |
1.4 |
1.8 |
Cropping intensity is as valuable as yield and cheaper to improve |
|
Tunnel crops per year |
1.5 |
1.9 |
Short-cycle high-value crops under protection |
|
Total tonnes produced |
401 |
3 188 |
70.8 tonnes a hectare a year by Year 5 |
|
Gross margin per hectare, open field |
— |
R53 100 |
The volume base that carries the fixed costs |
|
Gross margin per hectare, tunnel |
— |
R1 460 000 |
27.5 times open field, at 7.1 times the establishment cost |
21.2 Market, cost and funding
|
Assumption |
Value |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Share sold via market agents |
86.0% falling to 58.0% |
The single most valuable commercial project in the plan |
|
Commission and agent levy |
12.0% of market-floor value |
5% market commission plus a negotiated 7% agent levy against a 7.5% maximum |
|
Direct-channel premium |
6.0% rising to 10.0% |
Earned by reliability over two seasons, not negotiated in Year 1 |
|
Packaging |
17.0% of net revenue |
The largest single cost line; tonnage-driven and price-insensitive |
|
Transport |
12.4% of net revenue |
Tonnage-driven; diesel rose 53.8% in the year to May 2026 |
|
Fertiliser |
11.6% of net revenue |
Applied from annual soil analysis rather than by habit |
|
Field and packhouse labour |
11.0% of net revenue |
Sectoral determination for agriculture |
|
Fixed cost base |
R1.13m rising to R5.30m |
Falls from 55.0% of revenue to 25.5% as area grows |
|
Owner remuneration |
R264 000 rising to R510 000 |
A real cost, deducted before EBITDA |
|
Total capital deployed |
R12.81 million |
Capitalised R11.11m, working capital R1.70m |
|
Founder equity |
R1.95 million |
At inception |
|
Grant funding targeted |
R3.50 million |
Blended Finance Scheme, Years 1 and 3; competitive and not committed |
|
Loans and facilities |
R9.50 million |
Seven instruments; see Appendix C |
|
Corporate income tax |
27% of taxable profit |
Assessed losses under the section 20 limitation; R90 000 arises in Year 5 |