Market price collapse

Medium

Very High

A 25% fall removes R5.20m of revenue and almost nothing from the cost base, taking Year 5 EBITDA to minus R1.78m. Direct channel to 42% of volume; staggered plantings across market windows; no crop above 30% of area; facilities able to defer amortisation.

Founder

Water failure or authorisation refused

Medium

Very High

Authorisation established in writing before the lease; dry-season pump test and hydrogeologist’s report; storage holding several days of demand; confirmed water as the first gate at every expansion.

Founder

Yield shortfall from heat, hail or disease

High

Very High

15% below plan costs R3.12m. Tunnels for high-value lines; rotation with no crop following itself; agronomist contracted from Year 2 and appointed by Year 4; scouting and thresholds.

Founder and agronomist

Blended Finance grant not obtained

High

High

R3.50m of the programme against a scheme Parliament reported as needing R1.5bn and receiving R613m. Apply a full year ahead through more than one institution; hold the planted area rather than over-borrow. Founder return falls to minus 16.4% without it.

Founder

Packaging and transport cost escalation

High

Medium

15% above plan costs R918 000. Diesel rose 53.8% in the year to May 2026. Full loads, combined drops, reusable crates on direct routes.

Farm manager

Certification failure or residue incident

Low

Very High

Ends the retail channel permanently and cannot be repaired within a season. Traceability from the first planting; registered products at label rates; withholding periods observed and recorded; certified spray operators.

Founder and agronomist

Direct channel does not develop

Medium

High

The whole channel thesis, worth R1.97m in Year 5. Build from hawker suppliers in Year 1 who need no certification; consistent supply through bad weeks as well as good; Gate 2 requires 20% by Year 2.

Founder

Input cost escalation on fertiliser and chemicals

Medium

Medium

20% above plan costs R775 000. Annual soil analysis; programme built from it rather than habit; scouting rather than calendar spraying.

Agronomist

Debt service cover breached

Medium

High

1.06x in Year 4 is the tightest point. Facilities to carry deferral ability; no expansion drawn where the preceding gate has been missed.

Founder

Labour cost and availability

Medium

Medium

15% above plan costs R344 000. Sectoral determination compliance; staggered plantings smooth the harvest peak and reduce seasonal peaks.

Farm manager

Theft and security

High

Medium

Fencing and farm security funded in Year 1; security rises from R64 000 to R256 000. Produce, irrigation fittings and copper are all targets.

Farm manager

Founder key-person dependency

High

High

Farm manager appointed Year 2, agronomist by Year 4 as a gate condition. Crop calendar, rotation plan and recipes for the fertiliser programme documented rather than held in one head.

Founder