Capital expenditure register (R m)
|
Component |
FY2027 |
FY2028 |
FY2029 |
FY2030 |
FY2031 |
Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Exploration & drilling |
520 |
280 |
150 |
0 |
0 |
950 |
|
LNG plant |
680 |
850 |
170 |
0 |
0 |
1700 |
|
Helium plant |
0 |
330 |
620 |
150 |
0 |
1100 |
|
Cryogenic logistics |
40 |
80 |
150 |
100 |
50 |
420 |
|
Environmental |
45 |
45 |
30 |
15 |
15 |
150 |
|
Technology |
70 |
60 |
40 |
15 |
15 |
200 |
|
Maintenance |
0 |
0 |
25 |
60 |
110 |
195 |
|
Total |
1355 |
1645 |
1185 |
340 |
190 |
4715 |
Modelling assumptions register
|
Parameter |
Value / treatment |
|---|---|
|
Repo rate / prime |
7.0% / 10.5% (SARB, May 2026 hike) |
|
Corporate tax |
27%, assessed losses carried forward |
|
Working capital |
11% of revenue |
|
Senior debt pricing / tenor |
~11.5% (JIBAR+350–400bps) / 12-yr, sculpted from FY31 |
|
DFI subordinated |
15%, PIK to FY29 then cash; 10-yr |
|
Depreciation |
Plant 15-yr SL; logistics/tech 8-yr; exploration 20-yr from FY29 |
|
IDC treatment |
Capitalised to plant during construction FY27–29 |
|
DSRA |
R180m (≈6 months senior service), built FY30–31 |
|
ZAR/USD |
18.60, +4% p.a. |
|
Exit multiple |
7.0× headline / 5.5× normalised EV/EBITDA |
|
WACC (project NPV) |
14.5% |