14.1 Basis of preparation

Sponsor headline revenue, EBITDA and production volumes are preserved exactly as briefed. Everything beneath EBITDA is independently re-derived: depreciation from the asset register, interest under a project-finance structure with capitalisation during construction, South African corporate tax at 27% with assessed-loss carry-forward, working capital at 11% of revenue, and a fully articulated funding cash flow. The balance sheet ties to zero in every year by construction (machine-verified). All figures are nominal rand millions unless stated.

14.2 Key assumptions

14.3 Projected profit & loss

FY2027–FY2028 are planned loss years by design, equity-funded: exploration overhead, pilot-scale unit costs and commercial build-out precede volume. Operating leverage arrives with Phase 2, EBITDA margin moves from 20% (FY2029) to 42% (FY2031) as fixed plant costs dilute and the high-margin helium stream scales from 9% to 37% of revenue. Interest is capitalised during construction (IFRS-compliant) and hits the P&L in cash form from FY2030 as facilities amortise. Tax remains nil until FY2031, when cumulative assessed losses of R259m are exhausted and the year bears R246m of cash tax.

14.4 Projected cash flow statement

Free cash stays positive throughout (minimum R146m, FY2027) because drawdowns are sequenced ahead of spend and interest is capitalised during construction. The investment J-curve troughs before the operating engine turns; FY2031 alone generates R1.02bn of operating cash flow, funding R190m of growth and maintenance capex while building cash to R727m plus the R180m DSRA.

14.5 Projected balance sheet

14.6 Covenants, reporting and investor protections

The structure is designed to be lender- and investor-friendly through explicit protections rather than optimistic assumptions. Given sub-unity debt-service coverage in the ramp years, the senior facility is proposed with a funded DSRA (six months’ service), a cash-sweep prepaying senior debt once DSCR sustainably exceeds target, financial covenants stepping down over time with an equity-cure right, milestone-gated expansion drawdowns, and full information rights (monthly management accounts, quarterly board reporting and audited annuals). The detailed covenant package and credit metrics follow in Section 16.