The programme runs 60 months from financial close to design capacity, sequenced so that each capital tranche is unlocked by a de-risking milestone. The critical path runs through exploration rights → drilling success → reserve certification → Phase 2 FID → helium cold-box delivery → helium ramp; the cold box’s 14–20 month manufacturing lead time is the single longest dependency, ordered at FID against a slot reserved earlier at pilot-contract signature.
Milestone schedule and dependencies
|
Milestone |
Target |
Depends on |
Unlocks |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Financial close (equity T1 + facilities) |
Month 0 |
This plan; DD complete |
Exploration programme |
|
Exploration & appraisal drilling complete |
Month 24 |
Rights granted; rigs contracted |
Reserve certification |
|
Pilot LNG commercial operation |
Month 26 |
Pilot EPC; NERSA licences |
Revenue; operating data |
|
Independent reserves certified |
Month 27 |
Drilling results |
Phase 2 FID |
|
FID — Phase 2 LNG + helium plant |
Month 29 |
Reserves; ≥50% LNG offtake; helium floor |
Senior-debt major drawdowns |
|
First commercial Phase 2 LNG |
Month 29–34 |
Construction 20 months |
Ramp revenue |
|
Helium cold box delivered & installed |
Month 44–48 |
Order at FID (14–20mo lead) |
Helium commissioning |
|
First liquid helium export |
Month 48–52 |
Commissioning; ISO chain; port |
USD revenue |
|
Design capacity (180 ktpa; 850 mcf/d) |
Month 56–60 |
Ramp curves; well hook-ups |
Steady-state economics |
Analyst flagSchedule realism
The 48–52 month first-helium target compares with Renergen’s ~60+ months from an equivalent stage, including cryogenic rework. The downside scenario (Section 17) applies a 12-month delay and a 28% revenue haircut; covenant headroom survives, but the DSRA and standby facility become necessary rather than precautionary. Drilling success is treated as binary in lender terms, senior debt does not draw until reserves are certified, which insulates lenders but concentrates pre-certification risk entirely on tranche-1 equity of R1.1bn.