AetherGas Energy (Pty) Ltd is a South African integrated energy and industrial-gases company established to explore, produce, liquefy and commercialise onshore natural gas and liquid helium. From a helium-rich gas resource in the Free State / Karoo corridor, the Company will build wellhead LNG liquefaction and a dedicated helium recovery and liquefaction plant, distributed through a cryogenic road and export-container logistics network, monetising the same molecule of wellhead gas twice: as methane (LNG) sold into an energy-hungry domestic industrial base, and as helium sold into a hard-currency, scarcity-priced export market.
The Company is raising R4.8 billion in blended capital, R1.92 billion of equity, R480 million of DFI subordinated debt and R2.4 billion of senior project debt, to fund exploration and drilling (R950m), an LNG liquefaction complex (R1.7bn), a helium purification and liquefaction plant (R1.1bn), cryogenic logistics (R420m), working capital (R280m), environmental compliance (R150m) and technology systems (R200m).
|
R4.8bn Capital raise |
R4.6bn FY2031 revenue |
R1.95bn FY2031 EBITDA |
65.7% Equity IRR (7.0x exit) |
The investment proposition
Sponsor projections show revenue scaling from R85 million in FY2027 to R4.6 billion by FY2031, with EBITDA turning positive in FY2029 and reaching R1.95 billion (42% margin) by FY2031. LNG output ramps from pilot volumes to 180,000 tonnes per annum; liquid helium reaches 850 mcf/day. This plan preserves those headline operating projections exactly and independently re-derives the full three-statement model beneath EBITDA, depreciation, interest capitalised during construction, 27% South African corporate tax with assessed-loss relief, working capital and a project-finance debt structure. On those re-derived numbers the Company reaches net-profit breakeven in FY2030 and generates R921 million of net profit in FY2031.
|
R millions |
FY2027 |
FY2028 |
FY2029 |
FY2030 |
FY2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
85 |
240 |
890 |
2100 |
4600 |
|
EBITDA |
(120) |
(35) |
180 |
720 |
1950 |
|
EBITDA margin |
(141.2%) |
(14.6%) |
20.2% |
34.3% |
42.4% |
|
Net profit after tax (re-derived) |
(120) |
(99) |
(41) |
4 |
921 |
|
LNG output (‘000 t) |
1.5 |
8.0 |
35.0 |
90.0 |
180.0 |
|
Helium (mcf/day) |
0 |
20 |
120 |
420 |
850 |
Why this business can win
- Dual-commodity engine. LNG anchors rand-denominated domestic cash flow against diesel-displacement economics (~45% delivered-cost saving); helium, a fraction of volume but a disproportionate share of margin, provides hard-currency export earnings with scarcity pricing.
- A proven regional template. Renergen has demonstrated the geology (Karoo helium up to 12% concentration), the permitting pathway, the offtake demand and DFI funding appetite for exactly this asset class in South Africa.
- Structural demand. Sasol’s wind-down of Mozambican pipeline gas from ~2027 strands an estimated 160 PJ/year of industrial demand, while global helium remains structurally scarce after successive supply shocks.
- Bankable structure. Equity-first drawdown, interest capitalised during construction, a four-year grace, sculpted amortisation from FY2031 (DSCR 1.34×–1.82× post-grace), a debt-service reserve account and a covenant dashboard built to IFC/DBSA standards.
- Credible exit. Trade sale to a global industrial-gas or energy major, or a JSE listing; a base-case equity value of ~R11.5 billion at a 7.0× EV/EBITDA exit implies a 65.7% IRR and 6.0× MOIC (52.9% and 4.5× at a normalised 5.5×).
Key findingIndependent findings — summary (detail in Section 18)
Peak funding exceeds the headline raise: programme capex, ramp-phase EBITDA losses, working capital, ~R466m of capitalised interest/PIK and the R180m DSRA imply a peak requirement near R5.08 billion versus the R4.8 billion headline, a structural gap requiring a committed standby facility or equity overcommitment at close. FY2027–FY2028 are funded-loss years: tranche-1 equity of R1.1 billion must be committed, not merely pledged, at financial close. And returns are exit-multiple dependent, with early-ramp implied realisations above long-run benchmarks before they normalise by FY2030–31.
How this plan exceeds a template
Unlike off-the-shelf plans, this document independently re-derives every line below EBITDA, applies South African tax and project-finance rules explicitly, integrates the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow so the balance sheet ties to zero in every year, sizes the true peak funding requirement rather than the bare headline, and stress-tests the credit against single-factor and combined shocks and a Renergen-pattern delay. Every material divergence between the sponsor’s figures and the re-derivation is disclosed. The result is a plan a credit or investment committee can interrogate line by line.