AetherGas Energy Business Plan — Credit Analysis & Covenant Dashboard

Debt-service capacity

Metric	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029	FY2030	FY2031
CFADS (R m)	(129)	(52)	83	527	1319
Total debt service (R m)	0	0	0	395	726
DSCR (×)	Grace	Grace	Grace	1.33×	1.82×
Net debt (R m)	418	1707	2804	2952	2119
Net debt / EBITDA (×)	n.m.	n.m.	15.6×	4.1×	1.1×
Interest cover (×)	n.m.	n.m.	n.m.	1.8×	4.8×

Figure 22. *DSCR profile against covenant and lock-up thresholds.*

Covenant package

Covenant	Level	Tested from	Consequence
DSCR (rolling 12m)	≥1.20× lock-up / ≥1.05× default	First amortisation (FY2031)	Distribution lock-up; cure rights
Projected DSCR (forward)	≥1.15×	FY2030	Drawstop on distributions
Net debt / EBITDA	≤5.0× FY2030 → ≤3.0× FY2032	FY2030	Cash sweep 50%
DSRA balance	6 months senior service	FY2030	Top-up obligation
Reserve tail ratio	≥1.3× certified 2P vs depletion	Annually	Re-sculpting
Insurance & HSSE compliance	Full programme; TRIFR reporting	Continuous	Event-of-default framework

Security comprises bonds over plant, cession of offtake contracts and insurance proceeds, a pledge of OpCo shares, and step-in rights under direct agreements with the EPC and key offtakers. Drawdowns are milestone-gated and certified by an independent engineer, with no senior drawings before reserve certification. The FY2030 first-amortisation DSCR of 1.34× is sculpted deliberately, a flat profile would breach 1.20× (a 0.95× outcome was observed in unsculpted runs), which is why sculpting plus the DSRA are embedded in the base structure rather than offered as concessions.

Figure 23. *Debt balances and net debt across the projection period.*

Figure 24. *Deleveraging: net debt / EBITDA from 15.6× to 1.1×.*

Single-factor covenant stress tests (FY2031)

Stress applied	FY2031 DSCR	Headroom vs 1.20×	Outcome
Base case	1.82×	+0.62×	Compliant
Helium price −20%	1.48×	+0.28×	Compliant
LNG volumes −15%	1.55×	+0.35×	Compliant
Opex +10%	1.61×	+0.41×	Compliant
Interest rates +200bps	1.69×	+0.49×	Compliant
Combined moderate (He −15%, vol −10%, opex +5%)	1.24×	+0.04×	Compliant — thin
Renergen-pattern delay (downside)	≈1.15×	−0.05×	Lock-up; DSRA absorbs

Analyst flagThe honest boundary of the credit

The combined-moderate line is the honest boundary: three simultaneous mid-sized shocks consume nearly all covenant headroom in the first full amortisation year. The structure survives, distributions lock up, the DSRA covers timing, the standby facility covers quantum, but lenders should size their own downside from that row, not from the base case.