Global helium supply is roughly 6.0–6.4 billion cubic feet per annum, concentrated in the United States (~46%), Qatar (~32%), Algeria (~9%) and Russia (~4%). The 2024 privatisation of the US Federal Helium Reserve removed the market’s historical buffer stock; Qatar North Field expansions arrive only late-decade; and Russian supply remains constrained. Against this, demand from semiconductor fabrication, healthcare (MRI is the single largest use), aerospace, fibre optics and research grows steadily and is largely price-inelastic, helium is a fractional input cost in multi-million-rand end products.

Pricing dynamics

Bulk liquid helium prices moved from roughly US$100–120/mcf pre-2018 to US$400–500/mcf through successive shortages, settling around US$430–450 in 2025–26, with recent take-or-pay contracts in the South African market priced above US$600/mcf amid Middle East supply disruption and new Russian export controls. Long-term contracts with the industrial-gas majors typically embed floor-and-escalator structures; spot sales into Asian semiconductor supply chains price higher but with volume risk. This plan models AetherGas realisations beginning at a premium during scarcity conditions and normalising toward US$350/mcf by FY2030–31, a calibration examined critically in Section 17.

South Africa’s geological advantage

• Karoo-basin gas has recorded helium concentrations of 2–4% routinely and up to 12% in places, versus 0.3–0.5% in the depleting US mid-continent fields.
• High concentration collapses extraction economics: less feed gas must be processed per unit of helium, so recovery capex and power per mcf are structurally lower.
• Renergen’s maiden liquid helium (2023) made South Africa the eighth country ever to produce liquid helium, establishing certification, export logistics and customer-acceptance precedents AetherGas will reuse.
• Helium exports are dollar-denominated, providing a natural hedge against rand weakness on the project’s dollar-linked capex.

Customer channels