Centurion Motor Exchange Business Plan — Appendix A: Scenario Parameters
The parameter set behind each modelled scenario, stated for independent testing.
Section 26 of 28
Appendix A: Scenario Parameters
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- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Investment Thesis
- 3. Company Overview
- 4. Problem, Customer Need and Value Proposition
- 5. Products and Services
- 6. Industry Analysis
- 7. Market Analysis
- 8. Customer Analysis
- 9. Competitive Landscape
- 10. Business Model
- 11. Go-to-Market Strategy
- 12. Operating Model
- 13. Management and Organisation
- 14. Strategic Plan
- 15. SWOT Analysis
- 16. Risk Analysis
- 17. ESG and Sustainability
- 18. Implementation Roadmap
- 19. Financial Plan
- 20. Funding Requirement and Structure
- 21. Debt Serviceability
- 22. Investment Case and Valuation
- 23. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 24. KPIs and Management Dashboard
- 25. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Scenario Parameters
- B. Appendix B: Year-1 Monthly Projections
- C. Appendix C: Sources and Glossary
Table A.1: Model parameters by scenario
|
Parameter |
Downside |
Base |
Upside |
Stress |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Volume multiplier |
0.90 |
1.00 |
1.10 |
0.90 |
|
Trading spread |
13.00% |
14.00% |
14.75% |
13.00% |
|
Average selling price FY28 |
R245,000 |
R245,000 |
R250,000 |
R245,000 |
|
Stock days |
52 |
45 |
40 |
52 |
|
Finance penetration |
58% |
65% |
70% |
58% |
|
Fixed cost multiplier |
1.03 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.03 |
|
Interest-rate shock |
+50bp |
– |
– |
+50bp |
|
Head office payroll |
R1.5m |
R2.4m |
R2.4m |
R2.4m |
|
Site 2 |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Table A.2: Other fixed parameters
|
Parameter |
Value |
Parameter |
Value |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Ramp floor / time constant |
28% / 6.0 months |
Wholesale average price |
R115,000 |
|
Minimum display (Site 1 / Site 2) |
60 / 50 units |
Amount financed ÷ VAT-incl. price |
90% |
|
Floor-plan advance rate |
80% |
Floor-plan limit |
R25m / R50m |
|
Minimum cash target |
R1.5m |
Stock insurance |
0.35% p.a. |
|
Maintenance capex |
0.12% of retail sales |
Site 2 capex factor |
92% + 2 years CPI |
|
Risk-free rate / ERP / beta |
9.5% / 6.0% / 1.2 |
Specific risk premium |
6.0% |