Centurion Motor Exchange Business Plan — Market Analysis
Market size in the Gauteng catchment, demand drivers and the addressable unit volume.
Section 7 of 28
Market Analysis
Jump to section
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Investment Thesis
- 3. Company Overview
- 4. Problem, Customer Need and Value Proposition
- 5. Products and Services
- 6. Industry Analysis
- 7. Market Analysis
- 8. Customer Analysis
- 9. Competitive Landscape
- 10. Business Model
- 11. Go-to-Market Strategy
- 12. Operating Model
- 13. Management and Organisation
- 14. Strategic Plan
- 15. SWOT Analysis
- 16. Risk Analysis
- 17. ESG and Sustainability
- 18. Implementation Roadmap
- 19. Financial Plan
- 20. Funding Requirement and Structure
- 21. Debt Serviceability
- 22. Investment Case and Valuation
- 23. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 24. KPIs and Management Dashboard
- 25. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Scenario Parameters
- B. Appendix B: Year-1 Monthly Projections
- C. Appendix C: Sources and Glossary
The Company’s obtainable market is small relative to a large serviceable pool
Headline market statistics overstate the opportunity open to a two-site retailer. We therefore narrow the national figure in three steps, geography, price band and catchment, and cross-check the result against a bottom-up estimate of what the sites can physically sell.
Table 7.1: Top-down market sizing (2026 values, including VAT)
|
Step |
Basis |
Factor |
Value (R bn) |
Units (000) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TAM: national dealer-retailed used vehicles |
AutoTrader H1 2026 R82.4bn and 195,455 units, annualised |
× 2.0 |
164.8 |
391 |
|
Gauteng share |
Gauteng’s share of the national vehicle parc and dealer activity |
× 38% |
62.6 |
149 |
|
SAM: R150k–R450k retail price band |
Share of value in the band (excludes premium and sub-R150k stock) |
× 55% |
34.4 |
115 |
|
Catchment: N1 corridor |
Tshwane south, Centurion, Midrand and northern Johannesburg, within c. 20 minutes of either site |
× 28% |
9.6 |
32 |
|
SOM: Company FY32 retail sales |
1,465 units; R492m incl. VAT in FY32 prices |
0.49 |
1.5 |
Source: AutoTrader 2026 Mid-Year Car Industry Report; Company estimates for the geographic, price-band and catchment factors. Band units use an average of c. R300,000 including VAT.
Grown at 4.5% a year to FY32, the catchment is worth about R12.2bn and the SAM about R44bn. The Company’s FY32 retail sales therefore represent c. 4% of the catchment by value and 4.6% by units, and only 1.1% of the serviceable market. The plan does not depend on market growth; it depends on winning share in one corridor.
Bottom-up, two sites can physically retail about 1,500 vehicles a year
Table 7.2: Bottom-up capacity check at maturity
|
Driver |
Site 1 |
Site 2 |
Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Display capacity (units) |
90–110 |
80–95 |
Stand size at c. 38 m² per vehicle including circulation |
|
Planned average stock (units) |
90 |
78 |
45 days’ cover of monthly sales |
|
Stock turns per year |
8.1 |
8.1 |
365 ÷ stock days |
|
Implied annual retail capacity |
720 |
624 |
Average stock × turns |
|
Plan FY32 retail units |
787 |
678 |
Includes 3% annual volume growth from FY30 |
|
FY32 average stock (units) |
98 |
85 |
Grows with volume at constant stock days |
|
FY32 display utilisation |
89% |
90% |
Average stock ÷ maximum display capacity |
The bottom-up and top-down views reconcile: the physical constraint (display and stock turn) binds long before market share does, which is why growth beyond FY32 requires additional sites rather than more volume through the same stands.
Demand is steady through the year, with a December dip and a strong January
Table 7.3: Seasonality index applied to monthly retail volumes
|
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.05 |
0.95 |
1.00 |
0.97 |
1.02 |
1.02 |
0.98 |
1.03 |
1.02 |
0.85 |
1.08 |
1.03 |
Pricing dynamics are driven by new-vehicle list prices, finance affordability and stock supply. Used prices held 1–3% above 2025 levels through the first half of 2026, while entry-level segments faced deflationary pressure from new Asian imports. The plan escalates average selling prices at 4.5% a year, below the 5.0% June 2026 CPI print, and tests a 5% price reduction in Section 23.
