NexaWave Fibre Networks — Projected Profit & Loss Statement
The projected profit and loss statement and the revenue, cost and profitability trajectory underpinning NexaWave.
Section 19 · Business Plan
Projected Profit & Loss Statement
The projected profit and loss statement and the revenue, cost and profitability trajectory underpinning NexaWave.
| R million | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | FY2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 150 | 620 | 1 700 | 3 600 | 6 800 |
| Operating expenses | (270) | (565) | (1 220) | (2 250) | (3 900) |
| EBITDA | (120) | 55 | 480 | 1 350 | 2 900 |
| Depreciation | (33) | (136) | (317) | (581) | (955) |
| Net finance costs | — | — | (164) | (608) | (1 259) |
| Profit / (loss) before tax | (153) | (81) | (2) | 161 | 686 |
| Taxation (27%) | — | — | — | — | (165) |
| Net profit / (loss) after tax | (153) | (81) | (2) | 161 | 521 |
| Key ratios | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | FY2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA margin | -80.0% | 8.9% | 28.2% | 37.5% | 42.6% |
| Revenue per home passed (R/yr) | 1 875 | 1 938 | 2 000 | 2 250 | 2 429 |
| Blended ARPU (R/month) | 1 389 | 807 | 630 | 545 | 513 |
| Penetration | 22.5% | 34.4% | 40.0% | 47.5% | 51.8% |
| Return on equity | -3.4% | -1.9% | 0.0% | 3.6% | 10.3% |
Reading the P&L honestly
- The J-curve is deep and long. The Company loses
R152.7m (FY2027) and R81.4m (FY2028) at the net level and is essentially
breakeven in FY2029 (−R1.6m); first meaningful net profit arrives in
FY2030 (R161m). EBITDA turns positive in FY2028, a full two years before
net profit — the classic infrastructure signature of heavy early
depreciation and interest against a ramping revenue base. - The assessed tax loss peaks at R235.7m (FY2029) and shelters
profits into FY2030, so cash tax is nil until FY2031 (R165m). Valuations
run off NPAT should not assume a full 27% charge before then. - Interest becomes the dominant below-EBITDA cost.
Finance costs rise from nil to R1,259m — 43% of FY2031 EBITDA — as debt
funds the build. The equity return is heavily leveraged, and ROE remains
modest (10.3% in FY2031) precisely because the asset base is so large
relative to earnings; the return is a capital-appreciation story
realised at exit, not an income story.
Revenue build — from homes passed to rand
Revenue is not an assumption in isolation; it is the product of four
drivers, each independently testable. The bridge below decomposes each
year’s revenue into its components, allowing a funder to stress any
single driver.
| Revenue driver | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | FY2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homes passed (avg, ‘000) | 40 | 200 | 585 | 1 225 | 2 200 |
| Penetration (%) | 22.5 | 34.4 | 40.0 | 47.5 | 51.8 |
| Avg connected subs (‘000) | 9 | 64 | 225 | 550 | 1 105 |
| Blended ARPU (R/month) | 1 389 | 807 | 630 | 545 | 513 |
| Implied recurring revenue (Rm) | 150 | 620 | 1 701 | 3 597 | 6 802 |
| Reported revenue (Rm) | 150 | 620 | 1 700 | 3 600 | 6 800 |
The small gap between implied recurring revenue and reported
revenue is installation/activation and one-off metro/dark-fibre income.
The decomposition makes the plan auditable: a lender can independently
verify that reported revenue is consistent with the homes-passed,
penetration and ARPU assumptions, rather than accepting a top-line
number on faith. Each driver is separately stress-tested in Section
25.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of NexaWave Fibre Networks (Pty) Ltd.