NexaWave Fibre Networks — Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
The sensitivity and scenario analysis - the stress cases and the resilience of returns underpinning NexaWave.
Section 25 · Business Plan
Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
The sensitivity and scenario analysis – the stress cases and the resilience of returns underpinning NexaWave.
FY2031 revenue sensitivity — penetration × ARPU
| Penetration → | ARPU -10% | ARPU +0% | ARPU +10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44% | 6 795 | 7 550 | 8 305 |
| 48% | 7 415 | 8 239 | 9 063 |
| 52% | 8 036 | 8 929 | 9 822 |
| 56% | 8 656 | 9 618 | 10 580 |
Reading: penetration is the dominant revenue lever. Moving from
the plan’s 52% to 44% penetration at FY2031 removes over R1 billion of
revenue even before any ARPU effect. A simultaneous penetration and ARPU
shortfall compounds severely — the reason penetration-cohort performance
is the plan’s primary early KPI.
Equity MOIC sensitivity — exit multiple × EBITDA
| Exit multiple → | EBITDA -20% | EBITDA -10% | EBITDA +0% | EBITDA +10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9x | 1.70x | 2.26x | 2.83x | 3.40x |
| 10x | 2.20x | 2.83x | 3.46x | 4.09x |
| 11x | 2.71x | 3.40x | 4.09x | 4.79x |
| 12x | 3.21x | 3.97x | 4.72x | 5.48x |
| 13x | 3.71x | 4.53x | 5.35x | 6.17x |
Scenario cases — EBITDA across the plan
| Scenario (Rm) | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | FY2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | (120) | 55 | 480 | 1 350 | 2 900 |
| Downside (rev −20%, opex +8%) | (172) | (114) | 42 | 450 | 1 228 |
| Severe (rev −35%, opex +15%) | (213) | (247) | (298) | (248) | (65) |
| Upside (rev +12%, opex −3%) | (94) | 146 | 721 | 1 850 | 3 833 |
- Downside (revenue −20%, opex +8%): EBITDA
reaches only ~R1.75bn by FY2031 and interest cover falls toward 1.4x — a
covenant-stress case that would force a build slowdown and likely a
larger or later second round. Equity MOIC compresses toward 2.4–2.8x
depending on exit multiple. - Severe (revenue −35%, opex +15%): EBITDA of
~R1.05bn by FY2031; the plan is not fundable as structured and would
require either additional equity or a materially slower, smaller build.
Lenders are protected by the R17.8bn asset security; equity bears
substantial value impairment. - Upside (revenue +12%, opex −3%): EBITDA of
~R3.5bn by FY2031; at 11x exit, equity value approaches R25bn and MOIC
exceeds 5x. Presented for completeness, not for underwriting.
The scenario architecture reflects infrastructure’s true risk
anatomy: the physical asset is the floor. Even in the severe case,
NexaWave owns a multi-billion-rand fibre network with decades of
remaining life and a growing annuity — lenders recover against the
asset, and equity retains residual value at a lower multiple. The
modular, throttleable build converts a demand or funding shock into a
smaller network rather than a failed one. This asset-backed downside is
the fundamental difference between infrastructure risk and
operating-company risk.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of NexaWave Fibre Networks (Pty) Ltd.