NexaWave Fibre Networks — Investor Returns & Exit Strategy
The investor returns and exit strategy - the MOIC, the implied IRR, the valuation benchmarking and the exit pathways underpinning NexaWave.
Section 23 · Business Plan
Investor Returns & Exit Strategy
The investor returns and exit strategy – the MOIC, the implied IRR, the valuation benchmarking and the exit pathways underpinning NexaWave.
Equity returns
| Metric | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Exit enterprise value | R31 900m | 11.0x FY2031 EBITDA of R2 900m |
| Less: net debt at exit | R13 072m | Total debt R13,322m less cash R250m |
| Implied equity value | R18 828m | — |
| Equity invested | R4,600m | Drawn at close |
| Money multiple (MOIC) | 4.09x | Gross, pre-fees, no interim distributions |
| Implied IRR | 32.6% | Five-year hold, single exit event |
Valuation benchmarking
Fibre infrastructure commands materially higher EV/EBITDA multiples
than most sectors because of long-life assets, annuity cash flows and
strategic scarcity. Global and local fibre transactions have priced
between 9x and 15x EBITDA depending on scale, penetration maturity and
growth. The Vodacom–Maziv transaction and international tower/fibre
deals anchor the upper range. The plan’s 11.0x assumption is mid-range:
it credits NexaWave’s scale and growth but not a strategic-scarcity
premium.
| Reference point | Indicative multiple | Read-across to NexaWave |
|---|---|---|
| Mature listed fibre/tower infra | 10–14x EBITDA | Long-life annuity assets support high multiples |
| SA fibre M&A (Vodacom–Maziv era) | Strategic premiums for scale FNOs | Scarcity of scaled open-access assets |
| Sub-scale / early-penetration FNOs | 7–9x EBITDA | Discount for penetration & funding risk |
| Assumed exit | 11.0x FY2031 EBITDA | Mid-range; sensitivity to 9x–13x disclosed |
Exit pathways
- Strategic telecom acquisition: the most probable
route — Vodacom, MTN, Telkom/Openserve or Liquid acquiring a scaled
open-access footprint; the Vodacom–Maziv deal demonstrates strategic
appetite for exactly this asset. - Infrastructure fund acquisition: Actis, AIIM and
global infra funds actively seek long-duration, inflation-linked annuity
assets — fibre is a core allocation. - JSE infrastructure listing: viable at FY2031
scale (R6.8bn revenue, R2.9bn EBITDA, R19.8bn assets), subject to
listing-window conditions. - Pan-African telecom merger: consolidation with a
regional digital-infrastructure platform.
Returns are doubly geared — to the exit multiple and to FY2031
EBITDA, which is itself driven by penetration. At 9.0x with base EBITDA,
MOIC is 3.3x; at 13.0x it is 4.9x. But if penetration disappoints by 20%
(dragging EBITDA down proportionally), even an 11.0x exit yields a
materially lower return, and at 9.0x with −20% EBITDA the MOIC falls
toward 2.4x. The heatmap (above) shows the full grid. The investment is
fundamentally a leveraged bet that NexaWave passes the right homes,
connects them to plan, and exits into a receptive infrastructure-M&A
market — three independent conditions that must all hold.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of NexaWave Fibre Networks (Pty) Ltd.